Over the last decade, the Polish economy and legislation have undergone significant changes to accelerate the decarbonization of Poland’s energy sector. More than 10 GW of installed capacity in onshore wind farms and almost 23 GW in photovoltaic power plants* may not seem impressive at first glance, but the growth rate is staggering – since the beginning of 2017, the installed capacity in the first of these energy sources has nearly doubled, and in the second – increased 230-fold!
The mentioned renewable energy sources (RES), with a small addition of biomass and hydropower, covered 29% of electricity production in 2024.
The rapid growth of installed capacity in photovoltaics was a result of the success of the “My Electricity” program, while the stagnation in the development of onshore wind farms was due to the introduction of the 10H rule in 2016.
However, common challenges associated with increased RES penetration in the power system and a new president at the helm of the country, whose statements seemed somewhat pessimistic regarding the pace of their development, may cause difficulties for the energy sector in Poland in the coming years.
What is the president-elect’s position on energy generation sources in Poland, and what can be expected from his presidency in the context of energy transformation?
President Nawrocki’s Perspectives – Pessimistic Forecasts for Onshore Wind Energy and Electromobility…
The views of President-elect Karol Nawrocki, former president of the Institute of National Remembrance, on the energy sector are largely unknown. Nevertheless, considering the views of the party that supported him, Law and Justice, and his own statements, we can get some indications of what might happen during his term**.
First, the new president opposes the top-down 500-meter distance rule for onshore wind farm projects.
Currently, in most cases, wind turbines cannot be built closer than 700 meters from buildings (and vice versa). This distance could have been changed to 500 meters, which many associations and developers advocated for, but the ruling coalition has not been able to successfully complete the entire legislative process so far.
The new president will not help in this matter.
However, he suggested that a “legislative gateway” should be left open for counties and municipalities to allow them to introduce the 500-meter distance.
Many researchers and experts, such as Krzysztof Dresler from Poland’s largest bank PKO BP, indicate that Poland currently has too much solar power generation capacity compared to wind, which does not help balance the system.
It seems that this status quo will persist for a longer time.
Additionally, the new president opposes the level of subsidies supporting electromobility in programs such as NaszEAuto, which may slow down the pace of electric vehicle fleet development across the country.
This would have a huge negative impact on mitigating the effects of negative prices and non-market redispatching, which are very common and increasingly pressing challenges in Poland.
Non-market redispatching in Poland is growing year by year, constituting one of the main barriers of Poland’s currently inflexible power system.
Source: EnAppSys Platform
…and Overly Optimistic Attitude Toward Nuclear Energy and Coal “Love Story”
On the other hand, the president-elect advocates for nuclear energy produced by both standard nuclear power plants and small modular reactors.
According to his statement, he will support the construction of three nuclear power plants by 2045 – the first to be commissioned in 2035, and the next two 5 and 10 years later.
This would be a more ambitious plan, both in terms of schedule and capacity, than the current one proposed in the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP).
According to this document, Poland aims to achieve 7.4 GW of capacity by 2040 in two nuclear power plants and supporting small modular reactors (SMRs). If Nawrocki’s plans were to materialize, it would mean accelerating the schedule by 2 years for the first nuclear unit and commissioning 4.8 GW of installed capacity in SMRs alone!
Projected installed capacity of various sources in Poland over the years
Source: National Energy and Climate Plan, WAM scenario (with additional measures, ambitious)
Let’s be clear – without a breakthrough in construction technology or breaking safety rules, 2035 as the date for launching the first nuclear power plant is unrealistic, especially considering current market conditions and the endless delays of recent projects (Olkiluoto in Finland) and those under construction (Hinkley Point C, UK).
Depending on the operational details of the nuclear power plant (baseload vs. load-following operation) and the implementation of renewable energy sources, one nuclear power plant could be sufficient to ensure system stability and not pose a huge burden on the state budget in the coming years.
Moreover, the narrative about coal as Poland’s national treasure is to remain intact. Nawrocki advocates for coal mining until 2050, which contradicts both the economics of extraction and EU climate policy.
Unless we discover breakthrough technologies that lower the costs of extraction from deep deposits and carbon capture and storage (CCS), we may end up mining coal… only to admire its beautifully piled heaps.
Politicians Powerless Against the Force of Energy Transformation
Paweł Czyżak, an expert from the Ember think tank, claims that “the energy transformation does not bow to politicians.” I believe he is right, considering the fact that between 2015-2025, energy production from hard coal and lignite in Poland decreased by as much as 19 percentage points, despite a somewhat different narrative regarding its extraction and use in the energy sector.
Given the current market conditions and megatrends in the economy, I believe we are dealing with a certain dualistic game between messages directed at different lobbying groups (“No coalexit”) and reality (steady increase in RES share and faster growth of BESS capacity).
*April 2025, Energy Market Agency
**https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7336022856016773120/
Hubert Put
Senior Energy Consultant and Polish Market Expert at Montel. His main areas of interest are energy markets, energy regulation, energy innovation (primarily in offshore wind and hydrogen), and energy sustainability strategies. His work in full-time positions was focused on e.g. Local Area Energy Plans (LAEPs), Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and Guarantees of Origin (GoOs/REGOs) and the impact of regulatory changes on the energy industry, in Germany, the UK and Poland. Participant of the Road to C-Suite postgraduate programme by the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT). Double Master of Engineering from AGH University of Science and Technology in Cracow and IST in Lisbon. Holder of the PRINCE2® Practitioner certificate and the alumnus of the premiere edition of the OECD Youthwise programme, through which he had the chance to be the voice of the younger generation on fair energy transition and sustainable development. Graduate of courses in project management organised by the University of Catania, and knowledge of energy markets organised by the European Federation of Energy Traders (EFET). One of the leaders of the World Energy Council Polish Branch. Author of a number of popular science articles on the impact of regulation on offshore wind energy or grid development, which have been published in professional media in Poland and in Germany, and co-author of analyses for e.g. Polish Youth Energy Council or UN Global Compact Network Poland.
